As the United States emerges from pandemic rules in the coming months, three critical trends affect retailers in the coming months.

Businesses will set new policies around returning to the office, more schools will reopen for in-person learning and consumers will start traveling again, which will have huge implications for the retail industry, according to The NPD Group .

Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA), NPD Chief Retail Strategist Don Unser described the headwinds and headwinds expected in the retail industry over the coming year. Here are three of the most critical trends affecting retailers in the coming months:

Millions of new remote and hybrid-remote workers

Compared to 2019, there could be as many as 28 million new home workers in the United States this year.

Unser estimates that 20% to 35% of the workforce will still work part-time or full-time from home when pandemic rules are lifted, which will have the biggest effect on consumer spending for technology, clothing, footwear, automotive and catering. .

“Home-based employees in the United States found themselves with more free time last year, gaining commute hours each week,” Unser noted, “which has important implications for the retail industry. detail, because more time available also means more time. to start new home projects and plan family outings. “

Children returning to class caused an early start

As more school districts returned to class, spending on traditional back-to-school items increased by tens of millions of dollars, which is highly unusual for this time of year. In early March, unit sales of children’s performance and leisure backpacks, apparel and footwear surpassed 2019 levels. Over the past three weeks, sales in these categories have increased by three digits compared to 2020 and double digits from 2019, according to NPD retailer tracking.

Sales volume was lower compared to the traditional back-to-school season, but the increase is clear: “The revival, vaccine rollout, spring weather conditions, the onset of Easter and other factors are also in play. game, ”Unser said,“ so it’s hard to isolate the true impact of the comeback, but it’s clearly a trend to watch. “

Experience spending will change some discretionary spending

While the trendline for foodservice and other experience-based categories was still down in the first two months of 2021 compared to the pre-pandemic period, it is now heading for a slow recovery as the economies of more states will reopen. Unser expects spending on experiments to come back strong.

“While spending is sure to increase on clothing and other retail categories, an overall shift in discretionary spending away from retail is likely,” Unser said. “Before the pandemic, consumers were focused on spending on travel, entertainment and other experiences, rather than buying merchandise, but that stopped when COVID-19 hit our shores. Now we are already seeing workers who have been deprived of their vacation in the past 15 months starting to increase their vacation spending for this year. “

Overall retail store sales improve

Looking at the geographic data during the pandemic, the sales performance of retail stores across the country fell 13%, year over year, but some cities fell even more. Major tourist cities in the United States posted stagnant performance in physical store retailing. In fact, between the week ending March 7, 2020 and the week ending February 13, 2021, in-store dollar sales fell 34% in San Francisco, 33% in New York and 25% in Miami. The sudden lack of tourism and the closure of retail stores were key factors in this decline.

“The point is, work in cities may not return to pre-pandemic levels, which is an important consideration for retailers who hope to recoup losses from the pandemic in the coming year,” said Unser.

When looking towards the future of retail, the focus should be on repositioning rather than the “recovery,” as consumer technology, small appliances and other categories actually increased during the pandemic.

“At NPD, we continue to take a close look at specific economic markers in hards, softlines, and foods.” Unser said. “As these markers improve, consumer behavior will certainly follow, and that’s what the retail industry needs to prepare for.”